State-specific fertility rate changes across the USA following the first two waves of COVID-19.

STUDY QUESTION: How did the first two coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) waves affect fertility rates in the USA? SUMMARY ANSWER: States differed widely in how their fertility rates changed following the COVID-19 outbreak and these changes were influenced more by state-level economic, racial, political, and social factors than by COVID-19 wave severity. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to already declining fertility rates in the USA, but not equally across states. Identifying drivers of differential changes in fertility rates can help explain variations in demographic shifts across states in the USA and motivate policies that support families in general, not only during crises. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This is an ecological study using state-level data from 50 US states and the District of Columbia (n = 51). The study period extends from 2020 to 2021 with historical data from 2016 to 2019. We identified Wave 1 as the first apex for each state after February 2020 and Wave 2 as the second apex, during Fall/Winter 2020-2021. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: State-level COVID-19 wave severity, defined as case acceleration during each 3-month COVID-19 wave (cases/100 000 population/month), was derived from 7-day weekly moving average COVID-19 case rates from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). State-level fertility rate changes (change in average monthly fertility rate/100 000 women of reproductive age (WRA)/year) were derived from the CDC Bureau of Vital Statistics and from 2020 US Census and University of Virginia 2021 population estimates 9 months after each COVID-19 wave. We performed univariate analyses to describe national and state-level fertility rate changes following each wave, and simple and multivariable linear regression analyses to assess the relation of COVID-19 wave severity and other state-level characteristics with fertility rate changes. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Nationwide, fertility dropped by 17.5 births/month/100 000 WRA/year following Wave 1 and 9.2 births/month/100 000 WRA/year following Wave 2. The declines following Wave 1 were largest among majority-Democrat, more non-White states where people practiced greater social distancing. Greater COVID-19 wave severity was associated with steeper fertility rate decline post-Wave 1 in simple regression, but the association was attenuated when adjusted for other covariates. Adjusting for the economic impact of the pandemic (hypothesized mediator) also attenuated the effect. There was no relation between COVID-19 wave severity and fertility rate change following Wave 2. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our study harnesses state-level data so individual-level conclusions cannot be inferred. There may be residual confounding in our multivariable regression and we were underpowered to detect some effects. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The COVID-19 pandemic initially impacted the national fertility rate but, overall, the fertility rate rebounded to the pre-pandemic level following Wave 2. Consistent with prior literature, COVID-19 wave severity did not appear to predict fertility rate change. Economic, racial, political, and social factors influenced state-specific fertility rates during the pandemic more than the severity of the outbreak alone. Future studies in other countries should also consider whether these factors account for internal heterogeneity when examining the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises on fertility. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): L.G.K. received funding from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R00ES030403), M.C. from the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program (20-A0-00-1005789), and M.L. and E.S. from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R01ES032808). None of the authors have competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Maternal Perceived Stress During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Pre-Existing Risk Factors and Concurrent Correlates in New York City Women.

Objective: We examined whether pre-pandemic mental health and sociodemographic characteristics increased the susceptibility of pregnant women and mothers of young children to stress in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Between April and August 2020, we surveyed 1560 women participating in a sociodemographically diverse birth cohort in New York City. Women reported their perceived stress, resiliency, and financial, familial/societal, and health-related concerns. We extracted pre-pandemic information from questionnaires and electronic health records. Results: Pre-pandemic history of depression, current financial difficulties, and COVID-19 infection were the main risk factors associated with high perceived stress. Being Hispanic and having higher resiliency scores and preexisting social support were protective against high perceived stress. Major contributors to current perceived stress were financial and familial/societal factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Among pregnant women, changes to prenatal care were common, as were changes to experiences following birth among postpartum women and difficulties in arranging childcare among mothers of young children. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that major risk factors of higher stress during the pandemic were similar to those of other major traumatic events.

Factors Associated With Changes in Pregnancy Intention Among Women Who Were Mothers of Young Children in New York City Following the COVID-19 Outbreak.

Importance: Early evidence shows a decrease in the number of US births during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet few studies have examined individual-level factors associated with pregnancy intention changes, especially among diverse study populations or in areas highly affected by COVID-19 in the US. Objective: To study changes in pregnancy intention following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and identify factors possibly associated with these changes. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cross-sectional, population-based study was conducted among women who were currently pregnant or had delivered a live infant and responded to a survey emailed to 2603 women (n = 1560). Women who were mothers of young children enrolled in the prospective New York University Children's Health and Environment Study birth cohort were included; women who were not currently pregnant or recently postpartum were excluded. Exposures: Demographic, COVID-19-related, stress-related, and financial/occupational factors were assessed via a survey administered from April 20 to August 31, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Pregnancy intentions before the COVID-19 pandemic and change in pregnancy intentions following the outbreak. Results: Of the 2603 women who were sent the survey, 1560 (59.9%) who were currently pregnant or had delivered a live infant responded, and 1179 women (75.6%) answered the pregnancy intention questions. Mean (SD) age was 32.2 (5.6) years. Following the outbreak, 30 of 61 (49.2%) women who had been actively trying to become pregnant had ceased trying, 71 of 191 (37.2%) women who had been planning to become pregnant were no longer planning, and 42 of 927 (4.5%) women who were neither planning nor trying were newly considering pregnancy. Among those who ceased trying, fewer than half (13 [43.3%]) thought they would resume after the pandemic. Of those pre-COVID-19 planners/triers who stopped considering or attempting pregnancy, a greater proportion had lower educational levels, although the difference was not statistically significant on multivariable analysis (odds ratio [OR], 2.14; 95% CI, 0.92-4.96). The same was true for those with higher stress levels (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.99-1.20) and those with greater financial insecurity (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 0.97-1.92. Those who stopped considering or attempting pregnancy were more likely to respond to the questionnaire during the peak of the outbreak (OR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.01-4.11). Of those pre-COVID-19 nonplanners/nontriers who reported newly thinking about becoming pregnant, a smaller proportion responded during the peak, although the finding was not statistically significant on multivariable analysis (OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.26-1.03). Likewise, fewer respondents who were financially insecure reported newly considering pregnancy, although the finding was not statistically significant (OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.46-1.03). They were significantly less likely to be of Hispanic ethnicity (OR, 0.27; 955 CI, 0.10-0.71) and more likely to have fewer children in the home (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.40-0.98) or self-report a COVID-19 diagnosis (OR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.31-5.55). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of 1179 women who were mothers of young children in New York City, increased stress and financial insecurity owing to the COVID-19 pandemic paralleled a reduction in pregnancy intention in the early months of the pandemic, potentially exacerbating long-term decreases in the fertility rate.

Predictors of severe and critical disease in pregnant women with SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread widely in the US and worldwide. Pregnant women are more likely to develop severe or critical illness than their non-pregnant counterparts. Known risk factors for severe and critical disease outside of pregnancy, such as asthma, diabetes, and obesity have not been well-studied in pregnancy. We aimed to determine which clinical and pregnancy-related factors were associated with severe and critical COVID illness in pregnancy. STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study of women with confirmed intrauterine pregnancy and positive nasopharyngeal swab for SARS-CoV-2 who presented to an academic medical center in New York City from 1 March 2020 to 1 July 2020. Severe and critical COVID-19 disease was defined by World Health Organization criteria. Women with severe/critical disease were compared to women with asymptomatic/mild disease. Continuous variables were compared with Mann-Whitney or t-test and categorical variables were compared using chi-square and Fisher's exact. Statistical significance was set at p < .05. Multivariable logistic regression was performed including variables that were significantly different between groups. RESULTS: Two hundred and thirty-three patients were included, 186 (79.8%) with asymptomatic/mild disease and 47 (20.2%) with severe/critical disease. Women with asymptomatic/mild disease were compared to those with severe/critical disease. Women with severe/critical disease were more likely to have a history of current or former smoking (19.6 vs. 5.4%, p = .004), COVID-19 diagnosis in the 2nd trimester (42.6 vs. 11.8%, p = .001), and asthma or other respiratory condition (21.3 vs. 7.0%, p = .01). Women with severe/critical disease were more likely to have cesarean delivery (35.5 vs. 15.6%, p < .01) and preterm delivery <37 weeks (25.8 vs. 3.8%, p < .01). After adjustment, history of smoking remained significantly predictive of severe/critical disease [aOR 3.84 (95% CI, 1.25-11.82)]. CONCLUSION: Pregnant women with a history of smoking, asthma, or other respiratory condition, and COVID-19 diagnosis in the second trimester of pregnancy were more likely to develop severe/critical disease. These findings may be useful in counseling women on their individual risk of developing the severe or critical disease in pregnancy and may help determine which women are good candidates for vaccination during pregnancy.

COVID-19 in pregnancy: creating an outpatient surveillance model in a public hospital system.

Objectives We describe a standardized, scalable outpatient surveillance model for pregnant women with COVID-19 with several objectives: (1) to identify and track known, presumed, and suspected COVID-positive pregnant patients both during their acute illness and after recovery, (2) to regularly assess patient symptoms and escalate care for those with worsening disease while reducing unnecessary hospital exposure for others, (3) to educate affected patients on warning symptoms, hygiene, and quarantine recommendations, and (4) to cohort patient care, isolating stable infected patients at home and later within the same physical clinic area upon their return to prenatal care. Methods Pregnant women in an urban public hospital system with presumed or confirmed COVID-19 were added to a list in our electronic medical record as they came to the attention of providers. They received a series of phone calls based on their illness severity and were periodically assessed until deemed stable. Results A total of 83 patients were followed between March 19 and May 31, 2020. Seven (8%) were asymptomatic, 62 (75%) had mild disease, 11 (13%) had severe disease, and three (4%) had critical illness. Conclusions We encourage others to develop and utilize outpatient surveillance systems to facilitate appropriate care and to optimize maternal and fetal well-being.

Acute Respiratory Decompensation Requiring Intubation in Pregnant Women with SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19).

There is a current paucity of information about the obstetric and perinatal outcomes of pregnant novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients in North America. Data from China suggest that pregnant women with COVID-19 have favorable maternal and neonatal outcomes, with rare cases of critical illness or respiratory compromise. However, we report two cases of pregnant women diagnosed with COVID-19 in the late preterm period admitted to tertiary care hospitals in New York City for respiratory indications. After presenting with mild symptoms, both quickly developed worsening respiratory distress requiring intubation, and both delivered preterm via caesarean delivery. These cases highlight the potential for rapid respiratory decompensation in pregnant COVID-19 patients and the maternal-fetal considerations in managing these cases.